Topic outline

  • General

    • Welcome!

      The exciting technique of 'strategic foresight' has been deployed for a project on Lake Doiran, and it turned out to be remarkable endeavour.

      Strategic foresight is the ability to create and sustain a variety of high-quality forward views and to apply the emerging insights in organisationally useful ways; for example, to detect adverse conditions, guide policy, shape strategy; to explore new markets, products and services. It as a process that attempts to broaden the boundaries of perception in four ways:

      - By assessing the implications of present actions, decisions, etc. (Consequent assessment)
      - By detecting and avoiding problems before they occur (early warning and guidance)
      - By considering the present implications of possible future events (pro-active strategy formulation)
      - By envisioning aspects of desired futures (preparing scenarios)

      ‘Strategic foresight offers a way of making use of our inherent storytelling abilities in order to engage tactic knowledge, make assumptions explicit, forge new shared understanding (i.e. meaning making), and anticipate and prepare for what has yet to happen.’ (Wilkinson, 2017)

      WE CANNOT WAIT TO EXERCISE STRATEGIC FORESIGHT & DENICA TACTICAL MANAGEMENT METHOD FURTHER MORE! REACH OUT IF YOU NEED THIS SPECIAL COMPETENCE! renata@tactical-management-in-complexity.com


  • The study




  • The strategic foresight study - ToC and intro (the official report will be available soon)

    • Strategic foresight means taking a point in future that has potential to occur due to global megatrends, regional and local trends and developments, informing oneself on the ‘as-is’ situation and then deploying strategic planning to outline strategic principles, tactical configuration and system design and offer action plans to help achieve it. It provides a methodological opportunity of connecting a preferable future with the current situation and helping navigate through the imagined landscape of potential, possible and plausible scenarios, in order to avoid the preposterous.

      Out of 30+ global megatrends, we identified in our horizon scanning 5 most relevant, strong and increasing ones - rapid urbanisation, increasing environmental pollution, increasingly severe consequences of climate change, increasing environmental pollution and diversifying approaches to governance and complemented them with contextual trends and weak signals. This lead us to conceptualising the two continuums of (1) existence of transboundary (or not) systemic solutions (ranging from no to existence of such solutions) and (2) maintenance of ecosystem habitat (ranging from degraded to regulated). These axes helped us reason what would happen if human actors improved towards transboundary governance and systemic approaches or not, and how could nature cope with it. Next, we devised the four scenarios across the two axes landscape, portraying SCENARIO 1: ‘DO NOTHING, DON’T CARE ’ (meaning No systemic solutions and Degraded ecosystem habitat) - evaluating it as POTENTIAL which is pretty much if people and countries continue to do or not do, as until now. This is borderline scenario with the worst case of preposterous where even more devastation exists (and is not subject to our analysis). Moving on right on the horizontal axis, is SCENARIO 2: ‘WILL OUR BEST BE ENOUGH? ’(where Systemic solutions are in place, but there is Degraded ecosystem habitat) - evaluated as POSSIBLE. The third scenario is in the upper left quadrant along the axis of ecosystem habitat regulation: SCENARIO 3: ‘POSITIVE DEVIANCE’ (with No systemic solutions, but Regulated ecosystem habitat) - as a PLAUSIBLE scenario. However, all the stakeholder consultations following the Local Agenda 21 guidelines for participatory engagement, discussions and interviews were directed towards visioning and achievement on track towards SCENARIO 4: ‘NATURE AND NURTURE’ (with transboundary Systemic solutions in place, and Regulated ecosystem habitat) as most PREFERABLE point in the future.


      Stay tuned for the complete study to be officially published!


  • Video description

  • The study